[1:00 PM] Patriots @ Bills

Who will WIN this matchup?

New England Patriots (6-1)

@ Buffalo Bills (4-3)

 

Current odds:

New England Patriots: (-260)

Buffalo Bills: (+220)

 

• ESPN simulations have New England as XX% favorites to win the game.

• XX% of sports bets are currently on New England to win as (TBD) underdogs.

• The line for this game is New England by 6 points.

• The New England Patriots get a chance to avenge their lone defeat of the season when they visit Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in a matchup of AFC East rivals. The Bills shocked the Patriots in Week 4, handing New England its first shutout loss at Gillette Stadium with Tom Brady serving the finale of his four-game suspension.

• New England leaned heavily on the run in a 27-16 win at Pittsburgh last week, with bruising back LeGarrette Blount rushing for 127 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Blount was held in check in the first meeting, managing 54 yards on 13 carries, but Brady will likely come out throwing after amassing 1,004 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first three starts. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who missed the first two games due to injury, has 16 receptions for 364 yards and two scores since Brady’s return while running back James White has 14 catches and three TDs during the same span. The Patriots’ defense is vulnerable, giving up 258.7 yards per game, but it also is permitting an AFC-low 15.3 points.

• Buffalo posted a victory margin of nearly 18 points during the four-game winning streak, but struggled in Miami with its top offensive weapon hobbled. LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 470 yards and five touchdowns during the four-game run, managed only 11 yards against the Dolphins while battling a balky hamstring that kept him out of practice Thursday. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who threw for 246 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting, could be without Marquise Goodwin (concussion) and Robert Woods (foot), as well as Sammy Watkins, who is on injured reserve. The Bills were gouged for 256 rushing yards by the Dolphins, but defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is expected back after missing three games.

• Brady can tie Brett Favre for the most wins (26) against one opponent since the NFL merger.

• Bills LB Lorenzo Alexander leads the NFL with nine sacks.

• Gronkowski has 68 career touchdowns and can set the franchise record with one more.

 

StreakSmarts Pick: New England Patriots

Confidence: 5/10

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