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from: Fan Cave Rugs
Who will WIN this matchup?
Baylor Bears (17-11)
@ TCU Horned Frogs (19-9)
Current odds:
Baylor Bears: (+175)
TCU Horned Frogs: (-210)
• The line for this game is TCU by 4.5 points.
• Coach Scott Drew’s Bears have been relying a great deal on guard Manu Lecomte (16.4 points) and forward Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (14.3 points, 9.2 rebounds), though it’s been the insertion of guard Jake Lindsey (3.3 assists) into the starting lineup that has coincided with the team’s 5-2 run over the last seven games. Defense is also a big factor, with the Bears holding opponents to 69 points per contest and 41 percent shooting from the field, which ranks second in the league.
• That defense will be tested by TCU, which is second in the conference in scoring at 84.6 points per contest, with forward Vladimir Brodziansky leading the way, averaging 15.5 points. Kenrich Williams, a 6-7 guard, paces the Horned Frogs in rebounding (9.3 per game) and is second in scoring (13.2 points), but he’ll need to play big against a Baylor squad that leads the league in rebounding and rebounding margin.
• The Bears have roared back into the thick of the Big 12 standings with a 5-1 record in February after going 2-7 in January. One of the big reasons for the turnaround has been the play of forward Terry Maston, who missed almost all of December after breaking his hand but has averaged 14.6 points over the last six games, including three of his four 20-point performances of the season. His fourth 20-point game came in the first meeting with TCU, when he also had nine rebounds and three assists but also four fouls, so the senior must balance his game between aggressive and careful to help the Bears get back on the winning track.
• Coach Jamie Dixon doesn’t have a lot of depth on his team, though the Horned Frogs’ rotation has expanded a bit since the return from injury of guard Shawn Olden and forward Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed. Because of that, there is some worry that TCU could run out of gas as it tries to make a run at its first NCAA Tournament appearance since the 1998-99 campaign, with Williams ranking third in the Big 12 in minutes per game at 35.9. Alex Robinson (31.1), Desmond Bane (29.6) and Brodziansky (27.1) are all within the top 30 as well, but Dixon feels like he can rely on his bench more to get his starters the rest they need.
• Baylor is 16-1 this season when trailing by three or fewer (or leading) at halftime and 1-10 when facing a halftime deficit of four points or more.
• TCU leads the Big 12 in assists, averaging 19.4, more than two per contest above second-place Kansas (17.2).
• The Bears are 11-1 in Big 12 games against TCU, with an average scoring margin of plus-16.5 points, though the Horned Frogs won this season’s first meeting in overtime.
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