Astros v. Rays

Who will WIN this matchup?

Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays

Starting Pitchers:

McCullers Jr. (HOU): 0-0; 0.00 ERA

Morton (TB) 0-0; 0.00 ERA

Current odds:

Houston Astros: (+115)

Tampa Bay Rays: (-125)

• The Houston Astros slugged their way to the American League Championship Series, flexing their offensive might by scoring 33 runs and bashing 12 homers against the Oakland Athletics. By most every measure, the Tampa Bay Rays would present a more formidable challenge for the Houston offense, and in Game 1 on Sunday at Petco Park in San Diego, the Rays lived up to their advanced billing by limiting Houston to a first-inning Jose Altuve solo home run in a 2-1 win that enabled Tampa Bay to grab a 1-0 series lead with Game 2 set for Monday at Petco Park.

• The Rays went 14-5 in one-run games during the regular season and eliminated the New York Yankees by the same 2-1 score last Friday to close that AL Division Series. The Rays finished second in the AL in ERA (3.56), and Houston is aware that runs might be a scarce commodity. In the series opener, the Astros finished 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded 10 base runners total. When they manufactured prime scoring opportunities in the fourth and eighth innings, the Astros squandered them by hitting into double plays that squelched those rallies.

• The Astros will look to even the series behind right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. (3-3, 3.93 ERA during the regular season), who is 1-0 with a 3.25 ERA over 12 career postseason appearances (five starts). He labored but did not factor into the decision in his lone start this postseason, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits and one walk with five strikeouts over four innings in the Astros’ 10-5 win over the Athletics in Game 1 of the ALDS. This will mark McCullers’ first appearance against the Rays after he missed last season following elbow surgery.

• The Rays will counter with right-hander Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA), the winning pitcher in the Astros’ Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2017 World Series, a game started by McCullers. Morton earned the win against the Astros in Game 3 of the 2019 ALDS, allowing one run on three hits and two walks with nine strikeouts over five innings. He is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 career postseason appearances (nine starts) with Pittsburgh, Houston and the Rays. For his career, Morton is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts against the Astros.

• Given the schedule awaiting both teams, with the best-of-seven series contested without any breaks, pitching depth will be paramount. The Rays have a distinct advantage in that regard and showcased that edge in Game 1 with four relievers hurling four scoreless innings in support of starter Blake Snell, who wobbled a bit yet limited the Astros to one run over five solid frames.