Citrus Bowl: #15 Iowa v. #22 Kentucky

Who will WIN this matchup?

#15 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3)

#22 Kentucky Wildcats (9-3)

Current odds:

Iowa Hawkeyes: (+125)

Kentucky Wildcats: (-145)

• The line for this game is Kentucky by 3 points.

• In a sport that’s been taken over by spread offenses and flashy passing attacks, Saturday’s Citrus Bowl matchup between No. 15 Iowa and No. 22 Kentucky will serve as a reminder of days gone by. The Hawkeyes (10-3) and Wildcats (9-3) are run-first teams that play strong defense and often make the magic happen when opponents make mistakes. While strange things often happen in bowl games when teams haven’t played for weeks, logic dictates this is probably going to be a 17-14 or 20-17 kind of game.

• Iowa has exceeded most expectations this fall, aside from midseason losses to upset expert Purdue and Wisconsin. But the Hawkeyes rallied to win their last four games and reach the Big Ten Conference championship game, where they were hammered 42-3 by No. 2 Michigan.

• Iowa hasn’t done it because of its offense. Aside from Tyler Goodson and his 1,151 rushing yards, there aren’t stars on that side of the ball. And Goodson is skipping the bowl game because he’s declared for next spring’s NFL Draft.

• There’s also a question about who will start at quarterback. Spencer Petras has been hampered by a shoulder injury and ineffectiveness over the season’s second half, while backup Alex Padilla has completed just 45 of his 97 passes. Veteran Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz said that who gets the call might not be decided until later in the week.

• Iowa’s identity is its defense. Even with the conference title game factored into the equation, the Hawkeyes allowed just 19.2 points per game. Opponents have rushed for just 113.8 yards per game and the Hawkeyes have picked off 24 passes, with Riley Moss recording a pair of pick-sixes.

• But they’ll face one of the most balanced offenses they’ve seen all season in the Wildcats. They averaged 206.1 yards per game on the ground and another 225 in the air. Will Levis threw for 2,593 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, completing 66.5 percent of his passes.

• Wan’Dale Robinson has been Levis’ favorite target, catching 94 passes for 1,164 yards and seven scores.

• On the ground, Chris Rodriguez chewed up 1,272 yards and scored eight touchdowns for the first 1,000-yard season of his career. Kentucky’s third-down conversion percentage of 51.1 percent ranks fifth in FBS.

• This will be the first time these programs have met.